Cities and towns are facing a significant untold threat to their bottom lines and the vital public services they provide if the proposed rent control ballot question is approved by voters this fall.
To understand the full extent of this fiscal tsunami, the Greater Boston Real Estate Board partnered with the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts on a comprehensive model that maps the state and local impact of rent control.
Almost immediately, the 2026 rent control ballot question would upend the real estate market, shrinking the residential property tax base by 6-9 percent in municipalities all across the Commonwealth.
Losses would mount over time. After a decade, property values would decrease by nearly 14 percent — costing home- and property-owners roughly $300 billion.
Faced with fast-eroding tax bases, cities and towns will have to choose between deep cuts to services or tax hikes of at least 10 percent to compensate for the losses.
Every city and town would face substantial property tax losses, but the hit to urban areas and college towns would be especially acute, with projected declines of 15-20 percent.
In Boston, proposed rent control rules would exacerbate existing fiscal challenges due to slowing residential tax collections and the ongoing commercial tax shortfall.
The effects of rent control would be permanent, amounting to a sustained loss of investment for homeowners and a durably shrunken tax base for cities and towns.
As part of our study, we calculated the estimated short-term and long-term impacts to property values and property taxes for every municipality in Massachusetts. Click through to find your community.
Due to the rise of remote work, office buildings aren’t as desirable or profitable as they once were. And their falling value has upended Boston’s tax system, cutting commercial collections by hundreds of millions of dollars.
To date, the city has chosen to fill this fiscal hole by raising residential tax rates, from 1.09 percent in 2024 to 1.24 percent in 2026.
Introducing rent control would exacerbate this already-serious challenge. In Boston, the average property owner can expect a reduction of around 9 percent over 3 years in their investment. This will result in a $160 million residential tax shortfall in 2029.
Filling this residential shortfall while continuing to deal with the drop in office values and heeding state rules for allowable tax rates would require a 13 percent rate increase for residents and an 8 percent rate increase on businesses.
The proposed 2026 rent control ballot question would mandate the strictest statewide rent control policy in the United States, and arguably the tightest rent control in any city, county, or state around the country.
© 2026 The Greater Boston Real Estate Board.
